Guides
What the numbers mean, worked through rather than asserted. Every figure here is calculated from our own archive or from the matrix, and we say which.
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The birthday problem
Choosing numbers cannot change your chance of winning. It can change how many people you split a prize with — and here is what our archive can and cannot show about that.
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How lottery odds are actually calculated
Where "1 in 45,057,474" comes from, worked through from the matrix, and why almost every quoted figure for a bonus-ball game is subtly wrong.
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Why hot and cold numbers do not work
The gap between the most and least drawn number is large, real, and exactly what chance produces. Here is how to tell.
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When a lottery changes its numbers
Five of the games we cover have changed how many numbers they draw from. Pool the two eras into one table and a perfectly ordinary ball sits at the bottom of every cold list forever.
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How lottery draws are actually made
Three of the games we cover are not drawn from a drum at all. What a ball machine, a certified generator and a pair of digit cages each do, and why none of it changes the odds.
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How many lines should you play?
A second line does double your chance, and the doubled figure is still roughly zero. What more lines, more draws and a syndicate each actually change.
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Consecutive numbers and other patterns
Every forum says not to play consecutive numbers. Across 8,341 draws, half of all draws contain a consecutive pair — which is exactly the number the matrix says to expect.
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Does the draw machine make a difference?
The UK publishes which drum and which ball set produced every result. We tested all four of its games for a difference between machines, and reported how many times we looked.